Future Horizons Malcolm Penn is forecasting the global semiconductor market will grow 8.5 per cent in 2015 to $364bn which means $1bn worth of semiconductors sold every day this year.
He says the chip market has recovered from the recent economic downturns and could be entering a golden era of growth.
He cites unit demand that is continuing on its upward curve of 12 consecutive quarters and average selling prices that have moved forward for seven consecutive quarters. Other factors include high wafer fab utilisation rates, low levels of capex spend and negligible inventory builds.
The only problem says Penn is a lack of confidence in the market.
“We reckon the semiconductor market grew 9.9 per cent in 2014, said Penn. “Under normal circumstances we would all be attending sales meetings in Hawaii, guzzling champagne.”
“Yet the perceived industry wisdom is that we are all doomed.” This outlook is exacerbated by short term, knee jerk reactions to events such as a Microchip profit warning in one quarter (the company reported better than expected sales in the next quarter) and the SIA’s overly pessimistic – in Penn’s view –of just 3.4 per cent industry growth in 2015.
In contrast Penn reckons there is every chance if the 2014 growth trend continues we could see the global semiconductor market grow 15 per cent in 2015.
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